Interpreting market movements in a whole new way
Interpreting market movements in a whole new way
Weekly Forecast for Indices, WTI Crude & Comex Gold
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S&P Forecast (Including Emini ES): Bearish below 2833.75. Value traders will seek to reestablish a rsik-on attitude and continuing to pour monies into equities. Retail traders as always will seek momentum moves in stocks to drive them up intraday only to watch them slide later during the week. The GDP numbers were close and this gives the FOMC reason to stick with Chairman Powells move to have at least 4 rate hikes for the balance of the year, regardless of the type of meeting the FOMC will be having. Geopolitical events in the Middle East (a region marred with violence historically for ages), continue so that will have some effect on the overall situation. Regardless of what the analysts predict, the 4-week trend higher in the S&P has broken from Fridays pullback.
Nasdaq Forecast (Including Emini NQ): Bearish below 7775 (NQ bearish below 7389.50). Earnings and a pull-back in technology names like Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet led to the pull-back in Emini Nasdaq futures and the index on Friday. We are headed lower during the coming week. The main range for the NQ is between 6956 and 7530 and we are skirting the retracement zones in the 7250 to 7175 area. Weakness in the initial part of the week will have the NQ seeking and testing 7000 level and index nicely below 7500.
Dow Forecast (Including Emini YM): YM is bearish below 25436. The YM continued higher during the earlier part of the trading session on Friday as the Dow was slower to fall despite McDonalds earnings. In fact, the YM has been slow to ride up in the ESs move higher earlier tot the 2849.50 area and therefore being the more technical of the index futures, was slower to fall. I think we drop in the coming week after being up for 4-weeks straight.
Russell Forecast: The Russell is the most bearish of the lot as small caps lose momentum they had built from the overall tax and investments situation. The RTY is bearish below 1687.2 and you could peg the index at about the same level.
WTI Crude (Futures: CL continuous contract): We pulled back nicely on Friday after the retest of the 69.92 (Thursday high) failed. The main trend is still up despite what the analysts opine. Only trading below 67.68 will change the trend back to shorts. We remain range bound for WTI Crude between about $73 and 66.25 with the retracement zones between 69.75 and 70.50. We are currently below this retracement zone and closed lower on Friday. WTI Crude remains bullish above 67.68.
Gold Forecast (Comex Gold GC - December): The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.However, December Gold futures are called bullish for Monday and is bullish above 1230.2. A sustained move above this level is suggestive of precious metals being preferred by investors especially with a pull-back in the USDJPY.
