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Emini S&P Market Profile summary

The analysis today references December’21 expiration contracts since brokerages have rolled for new trades to the front-quarter which is now December. Stock futures have fallen since the open [4501.75] to a low at one point in the ON session to 4476.25 and at the time of this writing are 0.28% lower from yesterday’s settlement. Stocks in Hong Kong pressed lower as well after China pressed on with online-gaming restrictions. The Nasdaq futures too showing some traits of trend exhaustion and pulling lower by 0.21% in the early session ahead of 7 am EDT. The  ECB  on Thursday indicated it would conduct asset purchases under its pandemic emergency purchase program, or PEPP, at a "moderately lower pace" after accelerating purchases in recent quarters. Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the  Governing Council  determined that favorable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP than in the previous two quarters. The  ECB  said PEPP purchases would continue with an envelope of  1.85 trillion euros  through at least the end of  March 2022. Meanwhile, volume yesterday in the September Emini S&P contract [which is more relevant for today] was approx. 1.278M and open interest is showing 2.577M. The short-term range for the December contract is between 4451.75 and 4539.00 and if we were to turn lower today in the RTH expect buyers to emerge if prices drops to between 4416.25~4439.75 as that is a previous value area and VPOC.

Possible scenarios and thoughts for intraday trade positioning:

1. A Fib long extension measurement from the lows we made in the 3^rd week in August as an anchor into the highs we made on the last trading day in August, still appears to be holding it’s weight despite liquidation breaks in the past 3 trading sessions which have painstakingly revisited some VPOCs. That measurement using the December futures contracts suggests a profit target of 4562.75 and we are making this point here today as technical analysis is important and when combined with value analysis, it allows a trader to keep critical levels and targets in their back pocket as they traverse the winding road of short-term trading.
2. In this comment we refer to volume which is more relevant in the Sept contact. The overnight move lower [September contract] lacked seller commitment while running lower from about 4492 down to that 4485.50 low in relatively lackluster volume.
3. The ideal long trade today is positioned between 4485.25 and 4495 in a slightly wider range and a stop at 4470.50 while expecting a profit target, if not today but into sometime next week of 4459.50.
4. Shorts may want to go in between 4514.75 and 4507.50 with a nice wide stop at 4525.50. Above this stop would mean we would be in narrow timeframe short-squeeze.
5. Initial resistance today is at 4510.25 and above there is smooth sailing into clear blue skies. Respecting that initial resistance would imply that we move down lower and attempt to hold the ONL 4476.25.

Key Levels to factor for the intraday price movement.

TPO Profile [references September contract for value area study]

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